• Bal Start: $979,981.73

• Bought: C79

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,015,078

• Cash: $439,501.81

Market Commentary

S&P500 and Nasdaq ended the US session slightly up but might as well be flat. This was a positive sign after Pakistan proposed a deal b/w Trump and Iran. Oil still remains above $100 per barrel. The VIX increased to 25.78 meaning we are in slight fear territory. “Normal” is seen as 15-25. Gold rose to 4707 (1.3%). The market still feels cautiously rising. ASX futures up this morning premarket.

Trump announced a two week cease fire to finalise the Iran deal. Oil dropped 9% on the back of that news. Equities jumped as a result. The ASX Tech Index was the largest gainer (+7.31%) while Energy was the laggard (-7.15%). Pleasingly, gold rallied back with names like Bellevue Gold jumping nearly +19%. GYG was also a strong contender after some good results, the stock jumped 12%, coming off its 52 week lows. For some bad news (or good news depending on your perspective), Drone Shield’s CEO is stepping down. This was likely since they sold most of their company stock a while back.

Portfolio Commentary

All but two stocks in the portfolio were up. Woodside and Coles were the only two negatives (-10.4% and -1.3% respectively). While it is disappointing that I will likely sell WDS at a loss, it was only 2% of the portfolio. So no major loss. But the rest of the portfolio is up. ZIP, OBM, LOV, and 360 all posting double digits gains today.

I unfortunately was busy today and didn’t get a chance to action any other positions. The Strait opening up does give relief to the market, but WDS will still be a longer term beneficiary. Remember Qatar Energy announced force majeure on its LNG contracts for 5 years or so. Infrastructure has been destroyed. I doubt we have seen the last of the energy crisis.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $974,154.43

• Bought: Nona

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $979,981.73

• Cash: $439,501.81

Market Commentary

On the morning of April 7th US markets were up and the ASX futures indicated the local market will also be up. Today was the deadline for Iran to accept a deal with the US or be bombed. It didn’t help that Trump posted an unhinged tirade on social media saying Iran must open the Strait or the bombed.

On open the ASX200 jumped to 8,800 before settling to 8,728 by end of day. All sectors ended the day higher led by tech, materials and financials. Star performer was GYG, up 18% after announcing strong 3Q sales due to partnership with Uber Eats. The monthly inflation gauge was up 1.3% (not great) and the Indeed Job ads dropped 3.1% MoM. Higher inflation and lower job growth are signs of stagflation.

Portfolio Commentary

The tech and gold exposure were the winners today. ZIP rallying 5.7% with OBM (+3.6%), 360 (+3.5%), and MP1 (+3.0%) not far behind. WDS (+2.5%) was up which indicates to me there is still concern on energy from Middle East crisis. While I would have liked to assess the positions and reduce cash, I did find the tile during the day. Detractors today were SHA (-3.7%), HMC (-3.2%) and GLF (-2.1%).

Everyone likes a logo. Showing todays’ best and worst in the portfolio

Investment Rationale

Did not trade today.

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $995,547

• Bought: C79, JDO

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $974,154.43

• Cash: $439,501.81

Market Commentary

Global markets finished up but were worried about the impending Presidential address to the nation. Gold rose 1.8% but still remains below $5,000. Brent crude price was up 8% after the U.S. vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next three weeks. While the Nasdaq bounced in a late session, investors buying the dip in tech, while the VIX jumped to 27.8, reflecting anxiety over a prolonged energy shock and potential supply chain disruptions. ASX 200 futures are up.

The ASX 200 fell -1.0% reflecting the worry of global markets. The market was flat from open until Trump’s address whereby the index dropped. The only gains were in Staples and Utilities whereas every other sector was down. The large cap miners and banks were down with the exception of CBA, and ANZ.

Portfolio Commentary

CBO and COL gained as Staples were the winning sector. They are the only exposures in the portfolio to Consumer Defensives. SHA and CCL were slightly up. The rest of the portfolio was down. OBM was the worst performer today. Tech and Financials and Materials are the largest weights in the portfolio and are therefore adversely affected by the market movements.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $978,779.40

• Bought: CBO, HMC, JDO

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $995,547

• Cash: $459,855.71

Market Commentary

The US finished March on a tear, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rising overnight. This “risk-on” move was sparked by POTUS suggesting military operations in the Middle East could wind down within weeks, even if a formal deal on the Strait of Hormuz isn’t in the cards. Despite the rally, oil remained above $100 meaning energy-induced inflation is at the forefront of investors’ minds. However almost all indices ended the month down.

The ASX 200 came out swinging today, surging 2.2% to close at 8,672 points. The primary catalyst was geopolitical optimism following reports that the US might be looking for an “off-ramp” in the Iran conflict. financials and IT sectors soared while energy stocks were more subdued. The Prime Minister gave a national address regarding fuel conservation, the broader market celebrated the first day of the new quarter with a $60 billion recovery in value.

Portfolio Commentary

High-growth and tech names dominated the session, led by a massive 16.2% surge from HMC Capital, while Zip and Life360 followed with strong double-digit and mid-single-digit gains. Conversely, defensive and large-cap stocks stagnated, with Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) finishing as the day's sole decliner at -0.3%. Took the opportunity to buy more of the stock. Woodside and Coles remained flat despite broader market momentum.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $970,634

• Bought: None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $978,779.40

• Cash: $504,714

Market Commentary

US markets were down overnight. The FTSE100 was up though. Gold is holding steady at $4,510 while the oil price jumps over $100 p/b. While the US market overall was down, Almost all sectors were in the green except for Industrials (-1.6%) and IT (-1.5%). Two sectors dragging everyone down. The Australian Government announced it would halve the excise on fuel, which will help consumers at the pump. Other commodities like Aluminium, Lithium, Coal, and Helium all go higher. AU futures are up. .

Today ended better with ASX200 up 0.39%. Technology had a rebound day as investors bought on the weakness. Energy retraced again -1.15% after news came out that the US gov was looking to re-escalate. Selected names in technology, and mining won the day: XRO, GMD, WGX. Other more interesting rallies were IEL, GDG and NWL.

Portfolio Commentary

XRO and OBM added significantly to the fund today but they are coming off low bases from prior drawdowns. CBO, ZIP and 360 also provided solid contributions. Meanwhile, LOV, MND and SHA were minor detractors to performance. Overall the fund was down for the month vs the benchmark. There will be an ex-post analysis conducted.

I will conduct a proper performance attribution shortly.

Investment Rationale

Did not trade today.

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $981,586

• Bought: SHA, SRG, GLF, COL

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $980,634

• Cash: $504,714

Market Commentary

Friday’s session in the US ended down after a relatively soft session. However, the news over the weekend has driven markets. Iran and US tensions have escalated with Iran warning the US against a ground invasion while Houthi rebels have joined the conflict, and US marines have arrived in the Middle East. As a result, the price of oil has spiked higher. Even the Victorian government has now stepped in to temporarily offer free public transport to combat the surge in fuel prices. While the Strait is mostly closed, some tankers are being allowed through for a toll fee. This is unlikely to curtail the price hikes. In addition, aluminium prices have risen after Emirates Global Aluminium stated its facilities incurred damage after an Iranian missile strike. Prices in fertiliser, helium, and plastics have all been affected.

S&P/ASX 200 closed down. The sell-off was fuelled by a combination of escalating Middle East conflict, surging oil prices, and persistent inflation fears that signalled potential RBA rate hikes. Energy and Materials were rare bright spots as investors find “safe havens” like Gold miners and commodity players. South32 and Alcoa Corporation saw significant gains of 6% and 9% amid supply shortage fears. Technology was the worst performer, led by Zip as the market rotated away from high-growth assets.

Portfolio Commentary

It was a red day all around. WDS, SHA and COL were the only stocks that rallied. Energy and Staples are the only sectors defending the portfolio from drawdown. Worst performers for the day were ZIP and 360 with MP1 as the third worst. Technology is still drawing down from the disruption of AI. For the aforementioned stocks, the disruption is unfounded and hopefully a short term drag on the portfolio.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $983,284

• Bought: None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $980,356

• Cash: $554,323

Market Commentary

US Markets were down overnight along with China, Canada, UK and Japan. Energy continues to be the performer driven by rhetoric from the US and Iran. Comms, IT, Industrials and Materials were down. Gold retraced further along with Copper while oil, once again rallied. ASX futures were down on open. While POTUS claims the energy crisis will be short, CEOs and market commentators beg to differ. Historical charts will say that the oil price will go back to its previous levels in a couple of months. However, the difference this time is that critical infrastructure has been destroyed. Not damaged, destroyed. Trump has also extended his arbitrary deadline to bomb more to 6th April 8pm ET.

The market ended the day down with energy leading and technology right at the back. The mixture of names included NXT, CDA, GMD, GGP falling while SOL, WHC, IGO and PLS rose. With pressure on the oil market, other forms of energy like coal are being sought out to fill the gap by countries overexposed to gas and oil.

Portfolio Commentary

XRO announced they will be partnering with Claude to increase the implementation of new products. Their AI agent JAX (Just Asking Xero) will use Claude to power logic and reasoning using client data. While this is a positive development, the stock sold off. If the price continues to fall to mid 60’s this will be a 4 year low (from Nov 2022). Portfolio weight is already 5%, Technology is likely to continue falling. Prudent to wait for signs of support.

ZIP, LOV, and SHA all fell to no news. Both ZIP and LOV are driven by consumer demand, one on the credit side, the other more cash based. ZIP’s Quad pay with “Pay in 8” is the fastest growing sector. However, should the US economy go into recession or face slower consumerism, ZIP credit growth and bad debts may go in undesirable directions. Whereas Lovisa’s products are cheap enough to not require a line of credit. Small guilty pleasure purchases (even as gifts) are likely to be relatively stable in softer economic conditions. Both stocks are undervalued based on sell-side forecasts.

Whereas 360,JBH and MP1 rallied. Mix of tech and discretionary.

Investment Rationale

Did not trade today.

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $991,155

• Bought: MP1, LOV, CBO, ZIP

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $981,586

• Cash: $554,323

Market Commentary

Markets were up overnight in both the US and UK sessions. All sectors except energy rallied back as oil tumbled near the $100 mark. Gold remains around the $4,500 mark. Australian futures are up suggesting another rally today. Expect Woodside and Santos to rise while tech seals off. The market is hoping for a speedy resolution to the conflict but Iran contradicts the Trump administration that talks are occurring. Given the recent news that an insider invested heavily moments before Trump’s “peace tweet” it seems unlikely that there are talks.

Market close saw energy up, gold down. The market ended lower today with Energy and healthcare leading while IT and Comms took another dive. These market swings are trading sentiment based on the rhetoric from POTUS while fundamentals are taking a back seat. Orica, Infratil, and Santos were the gainers while Genesis, Ramelius, and WiseTech fell.

Portfolio Commentary

Two thirds of the portfolio fell. A mixture of tech, materials, and consumer. MP1 gave back the gains it had generated for the portfolio. It had a middle weight so the opportunity was taken to increase it to 7% of the portfolio. WDS gained with the rest of the energy sector. It is only a 2% weight as the sector is heavily geopolitical driven. Opportunistic buying in performing names was taken.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $980,470

• Bought: 360, MND, SHA

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $991,155

• Cash: $625,621

Market Commentary

US market indices were down overnight, except for the Russell 2000. Whereas Hong Kong, Japan, Canada, and China Indices gained. Gold rose 1.5% but still sits below the $5,000 price level. Copper and oil rebounded. Australian futures indicate the market will go up.

Many of the household technology names were lower today. Materials as a sector was leading. 4D Medical jumped 30% after it announced it deployed its product at the Mayo Clinic. While good news for them, the company is far from profitable. Australia’s CPI YoY figure came out slightly lower than expectations (3.7% v 3.8%)which sent the ASX upwards

Portfolio Commentary

OBM was the best performer today, closing the day 9% up. There was no news but the gold price increased slightly above $4,500USD/troy ounce. Woodside Energy was the detractor of the day. As the oil price drops, the market is selling off energy names. There is a lag between the price of oil now and the impact on WDS earnings. We won’t see the impact for a while. In addition, sellside analysts will be reluctant to change their forecasts based on oil prices from a geopolitical shock. When the market agrees the higher oil price is structural, sellside will update earnings forecasts on higher prices.

Most of the portfolio up today, LOV, MND, MP1, SHA, CCL, CBO, JBH, GLF. Added to existing positions in MND and SHA to make their weights more meaningful, 2% and 1.5% respectively. In a 30 stock portfolio, minimum 1.5% as a starting weight appears reasonable. There are two other construction stocks that are of interest, MGH and SYL. These will have to be assessed in future.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $980,180

• Bought: None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $980,470

• Cash: $649,884

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded in the states after Trump gave Iran a pause for another week. This is likely viewed by the market as Trump looking for a way to back out (classic TACO trade). However, the Iranians have come out to say they do not know who the US is negotiating with, would be no-one. Despite the complete lack of certainty, the market took the opportunity to rally. Oil prices fell, but energy stocks were mixed. The S&P 500 was up 1.2% with Discretionary, Materials, and Technology rebounding. As a result the Australian futures were up premarket.

Energy struggled today. The government is negotiating to keep the flow of energy despite six fuel tankers from Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea being cancelled or deferred. The refineries in those regions are grappling with the loss of oil flow from the Middle East.

In both the sectors that rose and fell (Materials, IT respectively), both indices showed that it was the smaller companies that benefitted from the rebound rally. I don’t believe we are in risk-on territory yet. Previously unloved companies like Audinate (AD8) rallied 7.5% today. Large cap tech favourites were down; WTC, XRO, TNE, CDA, NXT. Perhaps indicating that the AI disruption trade is still in vogue.

Portfolio Commentary

OBM started the session up 9% but ended the day flat. Materials as a sector was up 2.9% but it was the smaller and micro-cap companies that gained over their larger competitors. Top gainers today were 360, MND, MP1, and COL in that order. WDS sold off with the energy sector and oil but energy security appears to still be an issue (see Australian government deal note above).

I’m conscious that I’m holding a lot of cash at the moment, so I’m not getting the benefits of being fully invested. However, the cash buffer has been protecting the downside of the portfolio. Plus it provides dry powder for future deployment. My approach is to stage the deployment. Despite today’s sentiment in the market, I expect another leg down. “Agent Orange” could change things overnight with a tweet.

Investment Rationale

No trades today.

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $984,358

• Bought: WDS

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $980,180

• Cash: $649,884

Market Commentary

It was another down day for markets. The strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility has knocked out 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity. Repairs are expected to take up to five years. Qatar also expects to lose 18m barrels of production. Phosphate, which is used in agriculture, is now under serious threat due to the conflict. The middle east has a lot of sulfur production. Expect both LNG and Agriculture chemicals to increase in price.

The Australian 10-year bond yield went higher, reflecting a sell-off market wide. The Australian Tech Index is at its lowest since October 2023. Gold has fallen below $4,500 per troy ounce.and the miners have followed. Those with higher AISC costs will be under pressure. According to Bloomberg, the correlation between the Mag 7 and S&P 500 equal weight has turned negative. This potentially means tech could rebound against the momentum of the market. LNG supply fears are increasing, I expect Woodside Energy (WDS) and Santos (STO) to be the local winners in the gas market.

Portfolio Commentary

OBM was the largest loser today, dropping -10.8%. Surprisingly LOV rallied. It is trading at a 52 week low. So this could be the market testing the bottom. It is up 4% today. JBH similarly has reached its 52 week low price and rebounded 2% today. 360 also made a minor gain, 1.5%. It was at this price 12months ago. The fundamentals still hold, and lets not forget it also had a good reporting season. CBO detracted a little but we invested at the right time so we are still up. A single analyst on Tradingview has a strong buy on the stock. Whereas Commsec shows fair value at $3.09 quantitatively

Investment Rationale

Portfolio Management Adjustment

I noticed none of my paper trades on Tradingview had fees. So I went through each transaction since inception and added in a trading commission, based on the CMC pricing structure. About 0.10% per transaction. Will have to do this going forward.

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $991,293

• Bought: CCL, WDS

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $984,358

• Cash: $660,246

Market Commentary

It was another tough session, ASX following the US down. Oil price went higher from Middle East tensions making energy the best sector of the day. Oil is not the only commodity under pressure. LNG issues are also expected to be a future problem should the tensions not cease. A position in WDS was initiated to gain exposure to both the LNG market. Gold miners fell due to the drop in gold price.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,004,967

• Bought: GLF, OBM, MND

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $991,293

• Cash: $675,245

Market Commentary

After the bad session in the US, it bled into the Australian market. Israel attacked an oil field, which pushed oil prices higher. Iran then threatened more attacks. The US producer price index rose 3.4% vs 2.9% expected. This pushed back rate cuts to April next year. The Fed decided to keep rates on hold. Selling was indiscriminate with some select names bucking the trend.

Materials were the worst performing sector, then IT and HC. Companies with a direct exposure to the oil price, like WDS, were up. Defensive names like WOW and COL were also up. The portfolio is still ~60% cash so there is plenty of dry powder to deploy. Until there is clarity on the Strait, it is expected the market will continue to fall.

Investment Rationale

Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

The markets recovered today. Technology led the charge at 1.6% up. Almost double the second best sector. Healthcare was the only negative. Strangely commodities were down across the board. AUD gain against the majors. I still don’t think we have hit the bottom yet so I’m staging into the market still. TradingView paper trading has a quirk with deposit receipt stocks like 360. They are done on margin (50:1).

SHA executed today but the volumes appear very low so will need to watch out for liquidity. Still waiting on other names to be executed. The prices have rallied away from my limit orders. Defence is looking interesting. Austal (ASB) came out with an announcement that 22 ships were ordered. Order book is 17.7b while 1H revenue is $1b.

Investment Rationale

Life360 (360) - Buy

Beat guidance on almost all metrics. MAU (monthly active users) were up. There are more customers paying for the subscription than ever. Sold off with AI sentiment but data in 360 is proprietary. AI less likely to replicate and more provide efficiency. Bought a small position as there is potentially more downside to come.

Shape (SHA) - Buy

Small scale building company. Been a slow and steady price rally. Trades on low volume and small mkt cap so can’t but a full weight all at once. Revenue growth average Low Double Digits (LDD) per half. Net income growing ~30% pa last 3 years. Sell side TP 8.25 (20% gain). Relatively low debt for a construction type business. Lots of cash on Balance Sheet (BS). Relatively high PE at 20x.

Materials was the standout sector today. Particularly gold names. Standout gold names were WGX, OBM and PNR. Decliners were a mix of energy (coal for example) and technology. The AI disruption theme is still affecting the market. RBA interest rates to 4.1%. Puts more pressure on valuations for tech and Healthcare. However the AUD rallied compared to other currencies. I’ve initiated a couple of names where I believe there is future upside. Pleasingly some of the names have come off their highs providing opportunity to buy. It was a mix of gold, staples, tech infra, and some contrarian consumer discretionary names as they are out of favour.

Investment Rationale

Cobram Estates (CBO) - Buy

Premier olive oil brand. US acquisition to enter market. Value accretive. Price dipped on sentiment around synergies. Long term positive view. LDD revenue growth. Near term risk on acquisition. Water prices adding to costs.

Cuscal (CCL) - Buy

ADI entity and part founder of AU NewPay system. Revenue based on volume not value. HSD grower. CCL bought competitor for 70m cash. Owns the infrastructure.

Coles (COL) - Buy

Preferred to WOW. Staples play. Discretionary spending expected to fall in future with higher inflation and rates. COL has stronger branding and online offering. Deals with DoorDash and UberEats in affluent areas. 1H26 sales growth (3.9%), higher than WOW. Trading on lower multiple.

JB Hifi (JBH) - Buy

Contrarian consumer discretionary play. Market priced in lower spend but JBH beat expectations for the half, 7% growth. 2H expected to be better. White goods business slow but robust. Tech business helped by AI hardware. History of returning capital.

Lovisa (LOV) - Buy

New stores in UK (Jewells), $500k rev per store average. 82% Gross Margins. Earnings beat on Rev growth. Network effect and inventory turnover speed is the moat.

Megaport (MP1) - Buy

Data Centre (DC) and AI beneficiary. Pipes processing power to clients from DC. Infra critical business TP opportunistic buy. P/S 5x. Recently upgraded FY26 revenue guidance to $302m–$317m

Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - Buy

Gold play. Recently made a 120k tonne deal. Increase in Round Damn estimate by 1000%. Adding $73m exploration budget catalyst for future upgrades

Xero (XRO) - Buy

Sticky accounting software. 80% margins. Has a large back book of customers on old pricing. Melio acqusition enabling future growth in US. B2B payments.

Objective

Primary Goal: To achieve a total return exceeding the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index over a rolling 12-month period

Secondary Goal: To document all investment decisions, the qualitative and quantitative “why”.

Investment Universe

• Primary Focus: S&P/ASX 300 constituents.

• Non Index: Allowance for 15% max non-Index names.

• Exclusions: No unlisted assets, crypto-assets, or OTC pink sheets.

Risk Parameters & Constraints

• Capital Base: $1,000,000 (No further additions)

• Concentration: 15 to 30 holdings

• Position Size: 12% of Total Portfolio Value at cost

• Sector Limit: Single sector Active Max 30%

Execution

• Buy Discipline: Considering liquidity and sizing.

• Sell Discipline: Thesis complete or broken. Rebalancing or trimming.

Reporting

• Market Notes: Market events, trading activity and portfolio analysis.

• Deep Dives: Stock thesis write-ups

• Lessons in Red: Post mortem analysis on mistakes.