• Bal Start: $1,098,966

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,117,379

• Cash: $85,493

Overnight Markets

Global market sentiment stabilized with the temporary pause in US-Iran strikes and progressing talks. US ended Friday on a mixed note with the S&P 500 flat and the Nasdaq slipping slightly amid ongoing tech re-rating. Oil had a sharp fall. There was a recovery in long duration growth names after relief came to bond markets.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 jumped +1.39% in a nice reversal after the rate sensitive sectors were hit hard. Tech led the way, jumping +4.52% as lower bond yields reduce discount rates for higher terminal values. Materials (+2.42%) and Gold (+3.9%) also rallied as lower projected diesel costs are expected to expand operating margins. Meanwhile Energy fell -3.00%.

Portfolio Commentary

Our portfolio gained +1.68%, outperforming the ASX 300 (+1.38%). The unwind of Energy and lower rates directly impacted the growth and tech names. Xero (+6.03%), BVS (+5.88%), 360 (+5.46%), and Zip (+4.76%) all benefited. Simultaneously, our healthcare names MVF (+4.58%) and EMV (+3.90%) jumped. Woodside was down (-2.94%), unsurprisingly. But what was a surprise was SKS dropping -5.67% while MP1 rallied +2.65%.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

It’s been a crazy week so this update will be for Friday. We will published another for today (Monday). In short, technology and software are hurting.

Fund Status:

• Bal Start: $1,125,190

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,098,966

• Cash: $85,493

Overnight Markets

Wall Street closed lower, led by a tech wiped out. Earnings disappointments included Tesla (-15%) and Alphabet (-4.0%), while US initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969, reinforcing a higher interest rate risk. Middle East tensions have yet to cease, as Brent crude oil jumped US$100 a barrel. The shock drove US 10 Year Treasury yields to 4.70%. Adding to the sell off across tech, base metals, and gold equities.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 finished Friday on a grim note, dropping -0.76%. We were dragged by the spike in oil, increasing worries regarding input costs, sticky inflation, and delayed central bank rate cuts. Energy was up +0.93% from oil, while Materials (-2.38%) and Tech (-2.90%) were the worst performers

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio was hit hard due to the overweight tech exposure, dropping -2.33% compared to the ASX 300 down -0.78%. Woodside (+1.79%) was up as it is correlated to the oil price and Symal was supportive (+2.17%). The rest of the portfolio, not so much; EMV down -5.52% (pre-revenue healthcare) GDG dropped -5.24% which we attribute to profit taking after a stellar session the previous day. The primary drag came from our tech and software platform names: Xero (-4.45%), 360 (-4.35%), Zip (-4.91%) and NWL (-4.16%).

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,124,436

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,125,190

• Cash: $85,493

Overnight Markets

US equities closed lower overnight with the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) dragged after Alphabet fell 4% on softer advertising revenue growth and Tesla missing profit expectations. This was compounded by SpaceX (-6.7%) continuing its post-IPO slide. Despite the US tech drag, crude rallied +3.84%.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 posted a strong return (+1.1%). The June employment print showed 76,000 jobs were added (vs. 15,000 expected), which sent 10-year Australian bond yields higher (5.0%) and heightened expectations for a rate hike. This triggered a rotation out of long duration and rate sensitive names: WiseTech (-7.0%) and Xero (-5.0%). Meanwhile Materials (+1.4%) and Energy (+1.0%) rose.

Portfolio Commentary

Our portfolio posted a slightly positive result +0.07% but it lagged the ASX300 (+0.18%) due to our overweight to technology (a long duration and high beta sector). As a result our portfolio was damaged by Xero (-5.01%), Life360 (-5.45%), Zip (-4.68%), and PC Gold (-8.50%). A combined weight of 22% of the portfolio. Whereas the benchmark’s performance was driven by mining and banks. However, our top performer was GDG which spiked +37.13% following a very positive update. Symal (+1.84%), Monash IVF (+1.49%), and Woodside (+0.47%) gained today, supporting the portfolio.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,121,589

• Bought PC2

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,124,436

• Cash: $85,493

Overnight Markets

Overnight, technology lagged the other indices with small caps (Russell 2000) showing a stronger day (+1.53%) than large caps in the S&P500 (+0.89%). Oil rose +2.26% on continued tensions in the Middle East while Gold also rallied +1.51%. Apple announced a leasing program…great. We can now add our phone to the list of subscriptions services we pay for in perpetuity. Welcome to the era of “non-ownership”. TSMC is also having discussions with clients about a 10% price increase for 2027, citing the rising cost of materials.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 finished higher on Wednesday (+0.34%) in a session where commodities did the heavy lifting. Eight of eleven sectors closed in the red, the exceptions being Materials (+2.3%) and the Gold Sub-Index (+4.0%). COMEX copper futures were also higher. Notable moves were Ora Banda (+7.8%) and Regis (+6.6%) for gold, while South32 (+4.6%), Rio Tinto (+2.5%), and BHP (+2.5%) represented the copper rally.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio had a solid green session gaining +0.25% while the benchmark rose 0.32%. Best performing names were: PC2 (+8.70%) which we bought more of, OBM (+7.77%) C79 (+5.50%), SKS (+4.11%). Other key positive contributors were HMC (+2.11%), CCL (+1.89%), and NWL (+1.54%). The downside was primarily due to Xero (-2.61%), Life360 (-1.73%) and Monadelphous (-2.62%).

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,122,617

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,121,589

• Cash: $96,627

Overnight Markets

Some interesting overnight moves; Energy (+0.55%) and Tech (+0.10%) of the S&P500 both posted gains (sectors that haven’t teamed up in recent history) while all other sectors were down. Kimi K3, the AI model, continues to create waves, raising questions regarding the capex spend on AI and data centres. In the UK, the price of Gilts (Government Bonds) fell as Andy Burnham, the new PM, spoke about “fiscal flexibility” in his speech. The market interpreted this as “higher spending”.

Australian Market

The ASX closure, while up, was somewhat anemic, ending the day up only +0.02%. An interesting mix of Technology (+3.26%), Materials (+1.33%) and Real Estate (+0.58%) were the top performing sectors. In addition, the Gold Index provided a nice rally (+3.64%). There was a clear move into large cap tech names, as household names like Xero (+2.05%), Wisetech (+0.86%), NextDC (+7.74%), TechOne (+2.53%) and Codan (+0.92%) all posted gains. Meanwhile, Healthcare as a sector was down -1.05% with select names finding bids (Ryman Healthcare +8.82%). One event of particular note was Aura Consolidated Group (+15.70%) rallying post the completed acquisition of Qoria (the child and school cyber safety company). It will be interesting to see how the company performs as a CDI going forward.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio was slightly down -0.09% vs the benchmark +0.04%. SKS and Megaport led the portfolio, rallying +5.48% and +5.10% respectively. Gold names provided some support with Ora Banda up +2.49%. Unfortunately PC2 fell -12.8% due to heavy profit taking. They announced an 84% increase in their Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and have secured Federal and State Environmental and Mining permits for open pit mining. Judo slipped -4.71% amid a broader financial sector rotation, while Netwealth (-4.05%) and Lovisa ( -3.02%) gave back gains.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,133,061

• Bought EMV

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,122,617

• Cash: $96,627

Overnight Markets

The US finished lower on Friday. The Nasdaq slid -1.40%, alongside a -1.01% decline for the S&P 500. Tech sentiment remained under fire following TSMC’s capital expenditure hike, which has sparked global anxieties regarding near-term AI infrastructure returns. Alongside Moonshot announcing Kimi K3, a new AI model, exacerbating the selloff and pushing the chip index into a bear market on AI capex and pricing fears. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East saw another night of US airstrikes, exerting upward pressure on oil prices.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 finished down, hit by lower Materials, Financials and Tech Indices. Whereas Energy (+1.80%) rallied, following the oil price. Fortunately, Woodside Energy rose +1.45%.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio slid-0.90% as tech outweighed any rally in Financials or Industrials. SKS was the primary headwind, falling -6.10%. We are still in the money on the stock. But the pull back signals tech momentum is running its course. Luckily we halved the position when we did. Zip also lost ground (-3.69%), alongside Netwealth (-2.21%) and Xero (-2.08%). Luckily, Woodside jumped +1.44%, Coles added +0.73% and Symal bounced +1.87%. The last biggest gain was our newest position EMVision (EMV) which rallied +3.40%. We had a limit order trigger on the stock.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,154,262

• Bought MVF

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,133,061

• Cash: $108,054

Overnight Markets

Wall Street retreated overnight as semiconductors overshadowed a rotation into defensive sectors. The Nasdaq lead losses, falling -1.47%, alongside the S&P 500 (-0.51%). Technology sentiment remains fragile; despite strong quarterly numbers from TSMC. It raised their 2026 capex guidance to US$60-64bn from US$52-56bn sparking concerns over sustainable AI spending. Interestingly, the SaaS subsector actually rose +0.86%. Market breadth showed some strength with Consumer Staples (+2.90%), Healthcare (+2.21%), and Real Estate (+2.10%) all rallying.

Continued military activity near the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude prices high and Treasury yields elevated, further compounded by hawkish Fed commentary cooling rate cut expectations. This combination hit commodities with gold and copper down.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 ended the week on a soft note, sliding -0.50% as risk-off swept through resources and technology. Materials (-2.91%) was the session’s primary anchor, with the Gold Sub-Index plunging -4.9%, as Ora Banda (-7.4%) and Northern Star (-4.1%) were both hit hard. Copper players were also squeezed, with Capstone Copper and Sandfire both falling -5.4%. Staples (+1.06%) attracted flows, highlighted by a +2.9% gain in Coles.

Portfolio Commentary

It was brutal across the board. Technology and Materials dragged the portfolio lower. SKS took the steepest hit, plunging -10.78% but luckily, we had already cut the position by half previously. Megaport also fell -8.48%, mirroring tech moves overnight. Zip fell -5.10% and announced it was stopping its operations in New Zealand. The silver lining came from Woodside (+3.29%), while Coles (+2.88%) and GDG (+2.30%) finished up. We also had a limit order execute on Monash IVF, initiating at 1%.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,150,092

• Bought WDS

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,154,262

• Cash: $119,480

This note is a day behind. So we will be posting the 16th July and the 17th July updates today. Lucky you!

Overnight Markets

US indices pressed higher overnight for a second straight session, finding support in another set of cooling inflation data. The S&P 500 gained +0.38% while the Nasdaq added +0.62% following June PPI numbers that landed softer than the consensus. Core PPI remained notably flat to up just 0.2% month-on-month, solidifying the disinflationary narrative from Wednesday’s cool CPI and pulling Treasury yields lower. Sentiment was further bolstered by the Bank of Canada maintaining rates at 2.25% for its sixth meeting, coupled with a robust start to bank reporting from Goldman Sachs. Despite the green close, some after-hours soft spots in technology names capped broader momentum, leaving the market on guard leading into the local open

Australian Market

The ASX 200 was essentially flat today (+0.00%). Materials (-1.60%) acted as the session’s anchor, weighed down by BHP Group (-2.3%) after its highly anticipated operational update missed the mark. An engineering failure at South Australia’s Olympic Dam mine and deteriorating ore grades in Chile forced BHP to issue FY27 copper guidance that landed 2% below the consensus. Fortunately, the index was saved by a substantial rotation into Financials (+0.90%). Commonwealth Bank (+1.8%) and NAB (+1.3%) absorbed the lion’s share of the mining capital, while Macquarie Group (+2.0%) clinched yet another record closing high of $258.16, riding the wave of volatile global commodity markets. Elsewhere, AMP (+9.8%) celebrated its best trading day since 2024 following a stellar H1 profit guidance beat.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio delivered a good result, gaining +0.38% to a flat benchmark. Strong performance across our software, wealth platforms, and retail growth exposures comfortably offset a minor sector-wide pullback in energy and fintech. Leading the charge was 360, which rallied +5.03% as SaaS rebounded. Lovisa jumped +4.93% on a positive retail move, and SKS rose +4.34%. Other green shoots were HMC (+2.80%), Bravura (+2.35%), and Netwealth (+1.42%).

Conversely, Zip dropped -1.87%, Megaport also slipped -2.35%, while Woodside fell -1.47% as investors adjusted following the moves in global crude pricing. We had a history limit order for WDS which was executed at $29.33, adding 1% to the position.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,142,963

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,150,092

• Cash: $129,756

Overnight Markets

The US rallied overnight, buoyed by cooler CPI numbers than consensus, easing interest rate anxieties. The Nasdaq led, rising +0.90%, while the S&P 500 added +0.38%, similar to the Russell 2000. Copper gained +1.33% and WTI oil climbed +2.10% to US$79.83/bbl as the US military enforced a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Australian Market

The ASX 200 gained +0.37% with Materials (+1.70%) overwhelmingly pulling the market up, led by BHP (+3.2%) alongside Capstone Copper (+4.6%) and Rio Tinto (+1.1%). The gains were partially offset by a -1.20% drop in Communications, dragged by Telstra (-2.0%) as it faced ongoing pressure from its recent network outage. Energy fell (-0.57%) due to high crude prices and the Gold Sub-Index also fell (-1.0%) with Regis Resources (-5.2%) and Evolution Mining (-3.7%) as notable drops.

Portfolio Commentary

The clear standout of the day was Zip which rocketed +8.47%. Our software names also performed well, with SKS (+5.03%), Bravura (+6.25%), and Megaport (+2.51%) adding to the portfolio. On the downside, Xero shed -3.57% continuing the trend following yesterday’s CEO share sale. Ora Banda also fell -2.24% along with PC Gold falling -2.27%, as gold surrendered early session gains.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Intro

This took an entire afternoon. Establishing a model structure that matched the financials, would allow for forecasting, and just finding the information among the disparate reports and media announcements takes a lot more time than first anticipated.

Where to Start

The first port of call was the Divisions tab. Symal has many business units in the group that grow at different rates. They even acquired another one recently, Shamrock (national defence contractor). To forecast methodically, we should get as granular as possible.

We ideally wanted to find the business unit level data from the financials. Unfortunately, Symal does not provide such detail. It does however, separate revenue and expenses into categories; Contract Services, Plant & Equipment, and Other (as a miscellaneous bucket consisting of Recycling, Waste Management etc…).

Another wrinkle is that some business revenue comes from internal sources (Intersegment Revenue), which will be a nightmare to forecast, if we attempt that at all. The most detailed data shows the revenue in each category and the attributed cost lines. This is a good start.

To further add complexity, Symal frequently normalises the financials, which they guide towards. For the time being, sticking with the statutory reporting figures will at least provide consistency.

Division Summary Section

Starting from the most recent financial reports and working backwards, we fill in the half-yearly revenues for each category. Remember: blue denotes manual inputs and black are calculations.

Symal does not provide 2H financials, only 1H and FY. So the 2H figures are calculated as the full year less the first half. We do this for all 2H periods.

We also plug in the expenses, which sums as Cost of Revenues. The order is the same as the Profit & Loss statement, for ease of comparison to the real reports.

Next we calculate our Gross Profit and EBITDA. The assumption is that the first expense line (Materials, Consumable etc…) are our COGS (Cost of Goods Sold). This is because the EBITDA equates to:

EBITDA = Revenue - Materials - Employee benefit expense - Other expenses

EBITDA = Gross Profit - Employee benefit expense - Other expenses

Both match the EBITDA figures in the financials, so we can be certain the formulas are correct. Included are the GP and EBITDA margin percentages.

Lastly, we calculate the period to period growth rates for both the revenue and cost lines. As an example, the total revenue growth from December 2023 to December 2024 was 11.1%

Formulae we know will be needed in future periods are extended across the sheet. So the first section will look like the image below.

Formula Error Warning: you will spot a series of #DIV/0! errors. Don’t panic. Because we haven’t inputted the forecasted figures, our formulas are trying to divide by zero. We could include an “IFERROR()” to remove the error. However, just know that it will also hide any actual calculation errors needing your attention. You can always add it later.

We pivot here because we needed two things:

1. A revenue proportion percentage table

2. An understanding of when Symal bought which business, the cost, and any other details.

Percentage Revenue Proportion

The % revenue proportion is simple enough, calculate which categories contribute the most revenue by percentage.

You may notice the revenue dollars in blue. This was to ensure our calculated total revenue at the top matched the raw figure from the financials. It is good practice to have checks in the model. Further down we included a check.

Acquisition Table

Given Symal is a serial acquirer, having a better picture of what was bought, when and how much will help our analysis. Trawling through ASX announcements and media releases we found the relevant acquisition data, specifically date of purchase and the dollars paid.

The EBITDA price multiple was manually calculated as none of the media releases specified it. However, in one investor presentation, Symal notes that most of the acquisitions were between 3-4x EBITDA, so we know what to look for.

Most of the media releases explained that the acquisitions would be EBITDA accretive by “x” amount. So taking the price paid over EBITDA gives an indicative multiple.

Quick sidenote: We could have asked AI to fetch the information for us (but where is the fun in that?). More importantly, the whole point of this exercise is to build knowledge. So while it is tempting to take a short cut, we urge you to do the work.

Assigning a category to each business unit was, at times, a judgement call. Some were fairly obvious or noted in presentations: Sycle and Ascot Bins in Other & Symal in Contracting.

Other businesses appeared to provide both contracting services and equipment hire. Ultimately the categorisation may have limited use as Symal doesn’t break down the financials to the business unit.

Cost of Revenues Breakdown

With the revenue breakdown segment finished, we have to build something similar for the cost side of the business.

We have our cost categories (Materials, Employee benefits etc…) from the previous section, and luckily Symal specifies the cost breakdown between the business units; Contracting Services, Plant & Equipment and Other.

“Other expenses” is tricky. There does not appear to be a business unit level breakdown in the financials. So we apportion other expenses by % revenue. This is where our revenue proportion section comes in handy.

Next time we will determine our EBITDA per business.

• Bal Start: $1,142,963

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,139,606

• Cash: $129,756

Overnight Markets

US Indices closed broadly lower as US/Iran tensions escalated and semiconductors continued to sell-off. Sentiment fell after Trump announced a reinstatement of the naval blockade on Iran. This sent WTI up +9.15% to US$78/bbl. This will help the Energy sector but increases inflation fears.

If we examine the US crude oil inventories, they are currently at a 5-Year low. Despite the US being energy independent, is there a risk that demand will outstrip supply, reducing inventories further.

Australian Market

The ASX as a whole ended the day flat whereas Energy (+1.98%), Utilities (+1.37%) and Materials (+0.67%) rally due to the geopolitical tensions. Interestingly, both Australian Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment rose to -5 and 83.9 respectively. The latter is surprising considering home buyer sentiment and clearance rates are still at lows.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio declined just -0.29% while the ASX 300 ended flat. Our 11.4% cash reserve and somewhat insulated us the commodity sell-off. Woodside jumped +3% alongside the rally in Energy. Bravura bounced back +7.62%, erasing almost all of yesterday’s profit-taking. Conversely, the commodity sell-off hit C79 (-3.09%), PC2 (-3.08%).

In other news, SKS wins $28m worth of data centre work. Morgans downgraded Xero (+0.80%) to Accumulate from Buy with a target price of $85. Meanwhile Bravura’s target price was raised to $3.05 by Canaccord (27% implied gain), and GDG’s (-3.76%) target price was cut to $5.50 by Citi (still an implied 50% gain).

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,157,078

• Bought 360, ZIP

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,142,963

• Cash: $129,756

Overnight Markets

Most US indices ended last Friday up, with small caps (Russell 2000) down -0.49% while large (S&P500) caps were up +0.42%. Materials were the leading sector (+1.12%) with Healthcare the only sector down (-0.81%). The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains in flux as strikes from US and Iran continue, sending oil prices up yet still near the pre-conflict level. Interestingly, the Trump Administration is investigating a retirement system inspired by the Australian super system. Lastly, SK Hynix IPO’d to much fanfare, rallying 14% above the offer price.

Australian Market

The ASX200 was essentially flat (+0.03%) today as the market capitulated to a tech sector sell-off (-2.48%). There were some positive movements in Financial and Healthcare names. A notable movement was the fall in Xero, after the CEO sold all of their common shares for “tax purposes”. Apparently this has happened a couple of times. Combined, the CEO’s selling proceeds equate to roughly $7.6m. Either a very good or very bad “tax purpose” would require $7.6m. Curious to know which it is. The index was saved from rallies in the big banks and the large cap end of town.

In other news, Coles is expected to announce an acquisition of pet care and veterinary company Greencross. A deal worth $4bn. By no coincidence, Macquarie upgraded its target price of Coles by 4% to $25. The cross selling advantages of acquisition are value accretive. Also, Canaccord initiated on PC Gold (PC2) as a speculative buy. Their target price sits at $2.15, much higher than the current $1.13 share price.

Portfolio Commentary

Our portfolio faced a challenging session, finishing down -1.21% due to the correction in technology. The top detractors were Xero (-4.31%), Zip (-2.88%) and Bravura (-5.51%). The latter is likely profit taking following last Friday’s breakout. On the brightside, SKS (+2.52%), Shape (+1.58%) and JB Hifi (+1.09%) came in to protect the portfolio. We took advantage of the sell-off to add to some high conviction stocks, namely 360 and ZIP. Adding 1% each.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,147,628

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,157,078

• Cash: $152,246

Overnight Markets

The US market overnight was positive, with the Tech sector leading (+1.65%) in both hardware and software. Small caps are also seeing their time in the sun (Russell 2000 +1.22%). Middle East tensions continue to pull the oil price down with gas futures following. Gold, meanwhile, finds some support, rising +1.43%. Everyone is talking about SK Hynix’s oversubscribed IPO for Friday. All aboard the hype-train. US jobless claims fell to 215k (v 218k est) below consensus, showing a relatively resilient job market.

Australian Market

At close, the ASX200 finished up +0.50% led purely by Materials (+2.32%) as our largest sector. Meanwhile Healthcare snake -1.96% led by the large cap names. Pleasingly Bravura (BVS) announced their results in advance, showing them beating guidance by a healthy margin. The stock jumped +14.4%.

Interestingly, SkinKandy share price has rallied 16% since IPO, a change of pace from the performance of other recent IPOs (Koala down -20% since IPO).

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio gained +0.82%, outpacing the ASX 300 benchmark (+0.50%). Today’s performance was driven by the breakout of Bravura (+15.12%), triggered by an earnings update, where management upgraded FY26 cash EBITDA guidance by 10% to $77m. Our exposure to gold also contributed meaningfully today: PC Gold (+7.08%) and Ora Banda (+5.16%) gained alongside Chrysos (+6.79%). Detractors were Cobram Estate (-2.67%), Lovisa (-1.38%), and XRO (-1.26%).

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,142,535

• Bought NWL

• Sold: MP1

• Bal End: $1,147,628

• Cash: $152,246

Overnight Markets

The US market was mixed overnight, the S&P 500 was down -0.28% while the Nasdaq managed a +0.20% bounce. Market sentiment soured after Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire was “over”. WTI crude jumped +6.25% to US$74bbl as a result. Market breadth declined, indicated by the S&P 500 Equal Weight dropping -1.18%. Meanwhile the US 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.6%. The tech sector bucked the trend with some gains from Broadcom (+4.8%) and Nvidia (+3.6%).

Australian Market

The ASX 200 fell -0.26% due to selling in Materials (-1.48%), and Gold (-1.2%). Energy (+1.67%) led the market with New Hope up +5.5%, alongside gains for Woodside (+1.5%) and Santos (+2.0%). Tech (+0.92%) was somewhat muted compared to the movements in the US.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio value increased +0.45% compared to the fall in the benchmark (ASX 300) fall of -0.20%. The driver of today’s performance was Megaport which rallied +5.56%. This bucked the sentiment of the broader market. We used the opportunity to take profit at the $20 price, trimming the position by 2.0%. We then deployed the proceeds into NWL, adding 1.0%.

In terms of other performers for the day: Lovisa rose +2.47% (where we recently increased our weight). Symal rose +1.89%. Woodside climbed +1.49% on the back of the escalating global oil prices, while COL grew +1.11%, the consumer staple to cushion the portfolio. The gains absorbed the selling pressure from Materials, including a -3.64% pull back in PC2 and a -2.05% fall in GDG.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,156,002

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,142,535

• Cash: $140,905

Overnight Markets

Markets overnight unfortunately had to contend with renewed tensions in the Middle East after a series of strikes exchanged between the US and Iran. WTI prices spiked (+5.76%) and led the Energy sector higher (+3.02%). Interestingly, Healthcare, both equipment and biotech, rallied +1.55%. The sector has been catching a bid recently. Technology, on the other hand, fell -1.62% and yet Software (as a sub-sector) rose +0.21%. The semiconductor names, however, drove the losses with Micron (-4.7%), AMD (-6.5%) and Intel (-9.6%) all down.

Australian Market

The ASX ended down -0.21%. Energy rocketed up +3.26% led by large cap names WDS (+3..22%) and Santos (+5.78%). While Financials, our largest sector, was up +0.65%, it was completely outweighed by the second largest sector, Materials, dragging the index down -2.00%.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio mirrored the benchmark’s sell-off, falling -1.16%. The primary drag on performance was a fall in gold and material names; Chrysos (-7.3%), Ora Banda (-4.4%) along with SRG (-4.9%). Despite the heavy selling in Tech, Megaport (+0.7%) bucked the trend. Unsurprisingly, WDS (+3.2%) was the largest stock performer given the spike in oil prices and the energy sector.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,160,366

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,156,002

• Cash: $140,905

Overnight Markets

The US closed higher as investors rotated back into technology. This momentum masked weak market breadth that saw defensive sectors lag, while Microsoft announced a 2.1% workforce reduction that includes cutting 1,600 Xbox staff.

Some of the exuberance couldn’t be translated into share prices. Specifically, Samsung had a profit record overnight, but the share price fell -6.72%

Australian Market

The ASX 200 fell -0.31% at close. Coal and uranium took a beating with a -8.9% slump in Boss Energy. Materials as a sector falling -2.64%, with Evolution Mining (-5.3%) and Liontown Resources (-7.6%) falling. The Gold sub-index also fell -4.3%. Information Technology rose (+2.01%) to cushion the market fall as NextDC (+3.6%) and Xero (+1.8%) rose.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio missed most of the commodity fall, finishing the day slightly down -0.38% compared to the ASX300 return of -0.32%. NWL was the shining star, rising +6.7% after announcing they expanded their platform for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Megaport also finished in the green (+0.53%), while Judo added +1.11% to its recovery.

On the downside, CBO was the detractor of the portfolio, falling -6.3% after releasing preliminary results. Their harvest and oil production was lower than 2025, while stating that this was an “off year”. CBO expects next year to be an “on year” derived from this years’ crop. They also expect the cost of water to be higher due to the El Nino (a typically dryer period). On the gold front, both OBM (-3.83%) and PC2 (-3.48%)

Investment Activity

Lovisa (LOV) - BUY

We bought another 1% of LOV. Forward PEs are at 21x vs the current PE of 28x due to higher EPS forecasts coming. UK retail sales growth and consumer spending have been on an uptrend, meaning their UK stores should see good sales. LOV do not provide guidance so like for like sales growth will be what we need to keep an eye on.

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Bal Start: $1,167,252

• Bought None

• Sold: None

• Bal End: $1,160,366

• Cash: $152,418

Overnight Markets

As mentioned last week, US markets were closed to observe Independence Day. Asian markets, however, showed strength with the Nikkei, and Hang Seng posting small single digits. Gold gained ground and oil continues to fall as more oil passes through the Strait. Canada also announced a new oil pipeline to Asia. Likely progressing with their goal for energy independence from the US. In other news, Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB and former French Finance Minister, is considering leaving the ECB to pursue the French Presidency.

Australian Market

The ASX200 lost ground by -0.28%. Healthcare led, advancing +1.5%. Household name CSL rallied nearly +2.0%, showing renewed strength. Technology (+0.93%) had a minor gain. Notably XRO (+1.8%) and 360 (+1.2%) inched higher. Utilities (-0.8%) and Materials (-0.6%) were the worst performing.

Portfolio Commentary

The portfolio fell -0.59%, underperforming the ASX 300’s -0.14% slip. The primary culprit came from Materials, where PC2 and OBM fell -3.77%, and -1.26% respectively. Following the gold index down. JBH faced selling pressure, dropping -1.98%, along with CBO losing -2.68%. Our largest weight MP1, fell again slightly by -1.77%. We will need to trim this position more.

On the positive side, XRO gained +1.81%, 360 rose +1.20%, and NWL rallied +1.15%. Pleasingly JDO continued its recovery, bouncing +1.71%. Cash reserves sit at 13%, slightly higher than preferred, but well positioned to capitalize on oversold movements throughout the week.

Investment Activity

None

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

When you begin an analysis, it often feels like a plate spinning exercise; building the model, while collecting the data, while making notes for your thesis. Hitting a roadblock in one task requires a pivot to another. But let’s establish some structure.

Model Framework

We know a model will be needed. My preference is to house the Profit & Loss Statement (P&L), Balance Sheet (BS) and Cashflow Statement (CFS) in one tab. It is easier to scroll or split the screen and audit the formulas.

At a minimum, the model will have the following tabs:

• Summary: A high-level overview of the statements, valuation metrics, growth rates, and margins. Note: This will be the last thing we complete

• Competitors: For conducting our peer analysis. I often include a sell side analysis here as well.

• Valuation: Our classic Discounted Cashflow (DCF) alongside a trading multiples valuation.

• Financials: The aforementioned 3-statements in one sheet

• Divisions: To assess and forecast the drivers of revenue for each business unit. Some units are a higher proportion of revenue and grow at different rates.

Should look something like this (this is using Google Sheets by the way).

Tip: If using Google Sheets, ensure the settings for dates and times are configured for your preferred country and currency. It defaults to the US date format Month-Day-Year (Yuck!)

Formatting and Sheets

It is good practice to keep the first couple of rows and columns of each tab free for any headings, formulas, notes, or references. In the Financials tab, I prefer to reserve one of these free columns for notes (on the left-hand side). This ensures that when you freeze panes, scrolling horizontally maintains the qualitative notations for each line item.

Our tab headers are coloured blue, with white font. Each header will have the tab name, company name, and our unit denomination (millions in this case).

Drag the blue heading across several columns, you never know how many you will need initially. Once you are satisfied with the length, place a series of asterisks in each cell of the final column. Creating a boundary. It serves as a visual stop and an anchor when using the keyboard to flick across the sheet (Ctrl + right arrow).

Summary Tab Setup

On the Summary tab, we have populated our initial placeholders and basic asset information

You could have anything you want here but brevity is your friend. We know we will calculate a valuation and an implied gain in the future. For now, useful background information will be the market cap and a couple ratios (EV/EBITDA, P/E, WACC).

Tip: Use Named Ranges for variables that will be used often. I have a named range for company name (“Cname”), share price (“CPrice”), and ticker (“CCode”).

Try to make the model dynamic where you can. Pull Symal’s market cap and trailing P/E directly from Google Finance using these formulas.

=GOOGLEFINANCE(”ASX:”&$D$6,”marketcap”)/1000000

=GOOGLEFINANCE(”ASX:”&$D$6,”pe”)

Colour Format

When modelling, consistency in visuals is going to save you and anyone else auditing your work. My view is twofold:

1. Make the model logical (aka idiot proof)

2. If it doesn’t look clean and appealing, no one will want to read it.

Choose a readable colour palette and have a consistent number format. Best practice is

• Manual figures in blue,

• Calculations in black,

• Links or data or other tabs in green (You may have already noticed the market cap and P/E were in green)

Dates and Periods

We now anchor our timeline. Symal’s oldest available financials are from December 2023. So, we will select the date of the prior financial end June 2023 (which we assigned a range name “StartDate”).

Our method of data collection will be directly from the company, hence “Direct”.

As a side note: If you were analyzing a US listing, you would source financials from EDGAR to search SEC filings. There is usually an excel file or two. Alternatively, many US companies will provide their financials in csv form.

Now we setup our dates and periods for our financials.

Pay attention to your period references when handling December. These represent half years. For example, the period ending December 2023 must be labeled 1H24 (for FY24), not FY23.

Here are the formulas used.

For the forecasted periods, the formulas are the same, but we are using oranges (instead of blues). Orange and blue are good contrasting colours, easy to read, and work well for people with colour blindness (red/green mostly).

For our future forecasted periods, the underlying formulas are the same, but we change our header colour to orange instead of blue. Orange and blue are good contrasting colours and look clean on a screen. Plus, it works well for people with colourblindness, particularly red/green (deuteranopia).

I have added a row of time periods directly beneath the headers that references the top row. This gives us a standardized period row we can quickly copy and paste when we build out sub-schedules down the line

Also, group the columns to nest your halves with the financial year they relate to. Models can grow very quickly. This is handy to condense the view.

With our architecture locked in, we can duplicate the setup across to our Financials tab. We haven’t begun entering raw data just yet, but the canvas is ready.

Sourcing the Data

As mentioned previously, if this was a US company, we could search EDGAR. But we have to head straight to the source: Symal or the ASX portal.

When hunting down historical financials, the smartest strategy is to work backward, starting with the most recent reports first. Because financial reports display the current period alongside the prior period, hitting the newest data first effectively cuts the data gathering workload in half.

For our Symal baseline, opening up the 1H26 half year and the FY25 annual instantly unlocks multiple periods of data in just two downloads.

Working backward also helps if prior periods have been restated (which were the case). It is incredibly common for a company to tweak or reclassify line items from a year ago. Going newest to oldest, saves time and avoids outdated numbers.

Unfortunately, the reports are in PDF format. Use Adobe Acrobat to convert the financial into Excel spreadsheets. They won’t be clean though. Once in Excel, we can line them up correctly and make it cleaner. This is just raw data by the way, so don’t spend hours on it.

With the historic periods downloaded and aligned, and model structure in place are ready to build out our history.

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• Bal Start: $1,154,677

• Bought None

• Sold: SKS

• Bal End: $1,167,252

• Cash: $152,418

Overnight Markets

US markets were mixed overnight with the S&P 500 flat while the Nasdaq continued to fall, driven by semiconductors. Gold rebounded while oil dropped, the relationship we have come to expect recently. Small caps broadly sold-off as indicated by the Russell 2000. Healthcare has had a resurgence with both the Healthcare Equipment and Pharmaceutical subsectors rallying in concert. Some other news, OpenAI is in talks with the US government to get a stake in the company. US Non-Farm payrolls (an indicator of employment) came in softer than expected (57k vs 110k est). The US market will be closed July 3rd for Independence Day.

Australian Market

The ASX ended the day up 1.37% (and the week up +1.09%). Healthcare was the leading sector (+2.67%), with many of the household names catching a bid: CSL +3.45%, SIG +2.20%, PME +1.81%, RMD +4.03%, COH +3.83%. May be worthwhile doing some work on CSL or COH, which are at their lowest prices in 5+ years. Materials was the second leading sector today (+2.53%), in particular gold (XGD +7.64%). Good for us.

Portfolio Commentary

Our portfolio delivered +1.1%, slightly below the ASX 300 +1.37%. The primary driver of our performance was from our Materials exposure, particularly PC2 (+9.6%) and OBM (+7.7%) as spot gold pushed above US$4,100/oz. Our names in Financials also contributed to the portfolio with GDG (+9.1%), ZIP (+4.5%), and NWL (+4.0%) rallying nicely, while BVS added +4.52%.

Semiconductors and technology have seen a pullback. In reviewing the valuation of SKS, we have cut the position in half. At initiation the forward PE of SKS was around 20x. It is now 26x after a minor drawdown. Sell side consensus shows little upside from here. For risk management, we have taken profits. Cash sits at 13.1%, providing more flexibility as the US heads into earnings season. Their results will surely impact our market.

Investment Activity

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Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Since inception, the fund has generated a Net Return of 19.2%. This is an alpha of 16.3% above the ASX300 Accumulation Index 2.9% return.

The portfolio continued to capture alpha through active management. Being overweight Technology (22.8%) vs the Benchmark weight (2.4%) contributed to performance. While our underweight to Materials (8.0% vs 27.5%) did provide a positive allocation effect, our stock specific exposure in OBM detracted from returns.

Portfolio Attribution

Our overweight allocation to Technology (22.8% vs. 2.4%) continues to perform, contributing 6.5% to the portfolio. This was due to MP1 (+44%), where we repeatedly trimmed the position as it grew, and 360 (+38%) recovering off its lows.

Interestingly, our Interaction Effect to Materials was positive (+7.0%) while the Selection Effect was negative (-9.6%). This is due to our large weight in OBM (-22.6%) dragging the portfolio and suggests we were correct in underweighting Materials but wrong on the we selected in that sector. The driving force of our return was Technology, which had a positive Allocation, Selection and Interaction Effect. Indicating we picked the right stocks and overweighted the sector correctly.

Another contributor to performance was Financials which added +1.2% to the portfolio and features a positive Selection Effect.

Avoiding Healthcare this month was a minor detractor, which we attribute to the final days of the month which saw Healthcare names outperform. In addition, we have not found any Healthcare names that we deem appropriate for inclusion.

An average Cash position of 11.0% created a minor -0.1% Allocation drag. We trimmed and added tactically over the month but prefer the safety net of a higher cash weight given the volatility geopolitically (US/Iran) and thematically (AI).

Portfolio Characteristics & Risk Metrics

The portfolio’s metrics are as expected. The current profile favours the mid-cap sweet spot, with the majority of companies between $1Bn to $5Bn in market cap.

The portfolio liquidity is well within risk parameters. Considering a 30% Average Daily Volume (ADV), the portfolio has a Days to Exit of 5 days. This is due to the small FUM size.

Other statistics include:

• Weighted Avg Mkt Cap: $4,748m, slightly higher than last month. Smaller than the $9,826m of the ASX300.

• WA Beta (1Y): 1.07, down from 1.11 indicating a less sensitive portfolio.

• WA P/E Ratio: 23.4x, similar to last month but remains higher than the ASX300

• 20.8x trailing PE. Portfolio is more expensive given the holdings are on the growthy side.

  

At the end of the month, the largest overweight was Technology (+19.9% ) while the Materials (-17.2%) was again the largest underweight.

In difference to last month, we increased our Financials exposure to a) not be so dramatically underweight and b) taking the opportunity to add and buy positions ZIP, HMC, GDG.

Key Contributors & Detractors

The NAV increased 4.45% during June. The specific positions that drove the return by contribution were:

• Megaport (MP1): Largest holding at 11%, returning 44.0%. Contributing 4.9%

• Zip Co (ZIP): A 4.1% position returning 40.9%. Contributing 1.7%

• Life360 (360): A 2.7% position returning 38.1%. Contributing 1.0%

Key detractors were:

• Ora Banda (OBM): A 6.1% position, fell -22.6%. Detracting -1.4%

• Judo Capital (JDO): A 4.0% position, fell -39.7%. Detracting -1.6%

• Generation Development (GDG): A 3.0% position, fell -12.3%. Detracting -0.4%

Notable Moves

One of our technology stocks had a thesis break, WiseTech, whose Chair Richard White is being investigated for human trafficking. While the company made a statement that this was a personal matter for White, unrelated to the company, the brand is synonymous with him. We sold the position entirely on the news.

XRO continues to languish in the software selloff, however, we remain bullish on the core business, the expansion into the US, and that AI will not take over the need for a critical and dedicated accounting software.

We added Symal Group (SYL) to the portfolio which rallied 7.4% over the month (since our initiation). In that time the company acquired a national defence subcontractor, adding another vertical to its growing remit.

Outlook & Strategy

The 19.2% absolute return since inception is a fantastic trend thus far. While we are pleased with the performance thus far, we cannot rest on this minor laurel as the track record continues to build. The concern however are the allocations to Materials, as the gold price retraces further, we may need to reposition our weights or change into alternative names.

The focus for the coming month will be to again strategically deploy dry powder, trimming successful candidates like MP1, and monitor our detractors for either exits or top ups, specifically OBM.

Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.