Ceasefire Euphoria, Woodside’s Record Run & 100% Upside Contrarian Play
Paper Mandate Market & Portfolio Commentary | 23 April 2026
Fund Status:
Bal Start: $1,069,392
Bought GDG
Sold: None
Bal End: $1,066,268
Cash: $233,676
Market Commentary
The US market rallied from the news of an indefinite ceasefire extension. While this is positive news in the short term, Rob Armstrong, FT journalist and host of the Unhedged podcast, noted that commodities traders are expecting the impacts of this war to be felt into 2030. This doesn’t stop traders from acting in the short term; Copper, Gold, Uranium, and Oil were all up overnight. In addition, US bond yields rose (prices fall) indicating a more risk-on sentiment. As another indicator of risk-on sentiment the US VIX dropped -2.9%. Sector outperformers were Tech (+2.3%), Comms (+1.4%), and (strangely) Energy (+1.1%). Australia futures (ASX200) are down -0.26% but it would be a surprise if the market ended the day up with Tech leading, following the US.
The Australian market finished in the red, with almost every sector down bar Energy (+3.08%) and Utilities (+0.18%). Cochlear continues to fall. Rare earth miners faced selling pressure following a decline in prices of commodities and broader concerns over Chinese demand. On the back of rising global oil prices from tensions in the Middle East, with major producers Woodside Energy (WDS) and Santos (STO) finishing higher.
Portfolio Commentary
Life360 (360) received an initiated Buy from Bank of America. GDG target price was cut by many analysts, between $4.90 from Macquarie to $7.55 by Jefferies. The stock ending the day up +1.2% to $3.60. Meaning an implied return of 100% at most. As a contrarian strategy we bought a 1% weight in the fund. It is currently trading on a PE multiple that is still expensive (although cheaper than it was). In other news, WDS posted record results and a strong financial performance for 2025. It added +3.18% today. Another spark in the portfolio was PC2, up +8.80% today. It is currently sitting at a ~3% weight in the portfolio. The detractors were OBM, WTC, XRO.
Investment Rationale
Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.