From Cerebras to Xero: Tech Sparks a Surge
Paper Mandate Market & Portfolio Commentary | 15 May 2026
Fund Status:
Bal Start: $1,102,415
Bought None
Sold: None
Bal End: $1,108,112
Cash: $149,149
Market Commentary
As mentioned Thursday, Cerebras IPO’d to much fanfare. Percentage gain on the first day was 68%. A very oversubscribed IPO. The whole US market ended the day up, less than a percent, but up. Records all round for the S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow. Tech was the solid leader of the day (+1.85%) while Materials lagged (-0.80%). Gold and Oil were relatively flat. A little concerning was the higher retail sales figure, sending the US 10Y yield to 4.48%.
With Kevin Warsh now nominated to the Fed, the test is whether rates will indeed remain on hold (as the most likely scenario). Turning to the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil markets will remain undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends. Stockpiles are drawing down at a record 4million barrels per day (bpd) in March and April. This is while OPEC is cutting production. Something that is worth mentioning, China exports rose 14% yoy to US$359.4bn. This is above estimates of 7.9%. Imports also were up 25%. Apparently the trade surplus has widened by $85bn (so much for tariffs).
The ASX closed lower on Friday primarily due to Materials as every other sector was up. This mining loss was probably driven by falling copper, gold and silver prices. Iron ore futures were also down. However, the biggest reversals were in the Tech (+3.2%) and Financials (+1.0%).
Portfolio Commentary
HMC price target cut to $3.4 by Jefferies (17% implied gain). Jefferies suspect that fund raising is challenged given the language in the update and the people appointed in the company. Meanwhile in tech-land, XRO’s target price was raised to $235.8 by Macquarie. WOW! They are confident. Implied gain of 190% (by the way, $235 and 80 cents? Very specific). MP1’s target price was also raised by Macquarie to $26 (I’m leaving out the cents). Implied gain of 100%. I’m keeping an eye on MP1, nearly 12% of the portfolio now.
On the downside, WDS has had some union workers striking at the LNG plant. The stock is showing some weakness but there is still more demand for units (according to my screen) than supply. The stock is also only 3% of the portfolio.
Investment Activity
Did not trade.
Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.