Portfolio Outperforms ASX300 by ~3.8% MTD. RBA Expects CPI to Return to Band in 2-Years.
Paper Mandate Market & Portfolio Commentary | 30 June 2026
Fund Status:
Bal Start: $1,179,624
Bought None
Sold: None
Bal End: $1,192,382
Cash: $129,286
Overnight Markets
Markets overnight were positive overnight with the S&P 500 (+1.18%) and Nasdaq (+2.07%) solidly in the green, led by Communications (+3.11%) and Discretionary (+2.68%). Conversely, oil and gold retraced. With US earnings season approaching, analysts from Goldman Sachs expect earnings to rise in Q2 driven by the AI investment boom.
Another firm, Citadel, cautioned their clients that the market could be underestimating Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, stating that the Fed policy is shifting and that Warsh may not come to the rescue to provide support to weaker markets, as others have done in the past. Locally, we are expecting the RBA minutes to be released at 11:30am.
Australian Market
The ASX ended the day slightly down (-0.51%) while ending the month up (+0.54%). The largest move of the day was Real Estate (-2.22%), with 19 of the top 20 real estate names all down. The second largest laggard was Materials (-1.60%), similarly the top 10 large cap names all retracing. Dyno Nobel and Sandfire Resources being notable exceptions to the broader sector. Financials as the largest sector rose +0.42%, cushioning the fall of the index.
The RBA minutes were released, highlighting a mixed global backdrop. Minutes noted that the ECB raised interest rates to constrain the secondary inflationary effects of oil prices. Domestically, the Board agreed that financial conditions are now, with the pass-through of monetary policy visibly taking effect via softer credit growth. It mentioned economic conditions are easing in line with the RBA’s expectations, and the Board acknowledged that it will take time for global production and distribution networks of oil to return. The RBA expects it will likely take two years before inflation returns to its target range.
Portfolio Commentary
The portfolio finished the month strong, up +1.08% for the day and +4.45% for the month. This compared to the benchmark (ASX300) scraping a +0.59% gain for the month (estimated). Today’s gains came from Staples (+4.8%) with a +3.1% overweight, and Technology (+3.6%) which has a 19.9% overweight. Top stocks were: CBO (+8.1%), MP1 (+6.4%) and ZIP (+3.5%). Detractors consisted predominantly of Cyclicals (JBH down -3.7%), LOV down -1.1%) and Materials (OBM down -6.2%). A further deep dive on our attribution will be published soon. We are expecting our 3-month Return Value Add ~17%. A great result.
Investment Activity
None
Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.