Tech Risk-On Despite Strait Debacle
Paper Mandate Market & Portfolio Commentary | 20 April 2026
Fund Status:
Bal Start: $1,051,981 (correction from prior day)
Bought PC2, ZIP
Sold: None
Bal End: $1,069,857
Cash: $255,238
Market Commentary
While markets finished up on Friday, the weekend saw elevated tensions in the Middle East. US naval blockade forced retaliation from Iran to block the Strait once again. Oil prices fell sharply on the news. Reporting from Bloomberg states Qantas will be reducing domestic flight capacity by 5% in order to mitigate the extra $800m fuel bill estimate for the second half. Westpac released its latest consumer confidence survey, showing a crash from 91.6 to 80.1 in March. Expecting US retail sales, and initial jobless claims data releases this week. ASX futures are down following the weekend news.
The market closed flat today (only +0.07%). Despite a chaotic weekend news with oil prices falling 11%, the sentiment “risk-on” (VIX measured at 13.2). Tech Index (XTX) was down -0.22% while Gold (XGD) was up +1.3%. The Energy sector was the largest underperformer -2.99%.
Portfolio Commentary
Zip price targets from Jefferies and Ords have been updated to $3.80 and $4 respectively. Zip’s strong March-quarter performance supports upgraded earnings forecasts. Coles target price (TP) was raised by UBS to $25, likely due to food inflation rising in Australia. OBM had a mid-day recovery, jumping 5.7% from its open. Tech was a big contributor today. SKS jumped 17%. Likely due to an article in the AFR specifically mentioning how good the stock is. XRO and WTC also benefited. Consumer was the weakest as COL and JBH struggled.
Investment Rationale
The Bench (current reviews)
LYL: Lycopodium.
Infrastructure and engineering firm. Working across multiple sectors. Resources, Industrial Processing, and Infrastructure. They have 3 business units: SAXUM which provides engineering and project management services to resources sectors. ORWAY provides consultancy, measurement, design, commissioning and other services to mineral processing. Mondium (jointly owned with Monadelphous), provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) for mineral processing projects.
Company appears to beat guidance on revenue and NPAT often (they only provide guidance on Revenue and NPAT, not earnings). But commentary suggests a slowdown and that SAXUM isn’t performing as expected. There are only a couple of brokers on the stock though. Appears to be trading at a discount to peers.
Growth rates are inconsistent on the business as a whole. A significant majority of the revenue (roughly 80-90%) is coming from the resources sector. They have other projects like the Victoria metro and rail projects, which are long contracts but don’t come about very often. MND (already in the portfolio) is a larger player in a similar space. Not sure yet about whether inclusion will add anything to the portfolio.
Disclaimer: This is a simulated portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.