Will the Dot-Plot Vanish? USA Interest Rate Fear Infects ASX as Rate Sensitive Names Fall.
Paper Mandate Market & Portfolio Commentary | 18 June 2026
Fund Status:
Bal Start: $1,197,493
Bought None
Sold: None
Bal End: $1,186,495
Cash: $115,284
Overnight Markets
In a turn of events, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone in his FOMC debut. The updated Fed dot plot revealed that 9 out of 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year. Warsh also shortened the Fed’s policy statement and stripped out the forward guidance leaving investors with more uncertainty. Yields surged as a result sending the Nasdaq (-1.34%), S&P 500 (-1.21%), and Dow Jones (-0.98%) lower. Both Gold and Oil slid on the risk-off sentiment.
Australian Market
Following the US, the ASX 200 declined -0.62%, weighed down by Tech (-1.36%), Materials (-1.27%), Energy (-1.15%), and Real Estate (-1.15%). Staples were the only bright spark, up +0.73%. The All Ordinaries Gold index was the worst performer, dropping -1.83%. It is unfortunate that news from the US, on their own policy changes, affect Australia. Will Michelle Bullock just follow the lead of the US, despite our own economic data? This is of course rhetorical.
Portfolio Commentary
The portfolio faced significant pressure today, amid the market pullback, sliding -0.92%, underperforming the ASX300 -0.63%. Materials bore the brunt of the commodity reversal (-5.68%), with a -7.53% fall OBM and -5.30% from PC2. Safe haven assets are clearly not “safe” when the US goes off the rails. Financials also hurt the portfolio as GDG and HMC slid -5.07% and -3.24% respectively. However we are significantly underweight compared to the benchmark, so the impact was lessened. Select Tech names (+0.51%), came in to defend the portfolio: MP1 +4.59%, SKS +3.18%, and BVS +1.40%. COL also rallied +1.08% to cushion the portfolio.
Investment Activity
None
Disclaimer: This is a paper portfolio. Content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.